Military Recruitment 2022 - Recruits with the 64th Annual Recruit Cardinal Unit stand at attention during a graduation pass inspection ceremony in the Midway Ceremonial Drill Hall at Recruit Training Command, Nov. 4, 2022. US Army photo.
When it comes to recruiting the military, economist Beth Asch is optimistic. Asch has been studying military recruiting for nearly 40 years, where he has seen both good and bad recruiting years.
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He said that every time a new challenge arises, it is treated as a problem. In the 1990s, recruiting was driven by the dot com boom, when many people were employed in the growing technology industry, Asch said in a November interview with USNI. In 2005, a strong economy and the war in Iraq made them less willing to join the service.
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But history shows that recruiting challenges can be solved, Asch said, suggesting that today's recruiting problems are no different.
"Sometimes, it takes a while," he said. "It takes a lot of resources, it's going to make mistakes, and it can be expensive. And that has to be calculated, but I think things will get back on track. I mean they should."
Senior military leaders have suggested that the tight labor market may be the cause of the current hiring woes, suggesting that it may be difficult to attract talent who also have opportunities to work for big box stores such as Amazon.
But a lack of eligible recruits and declining confidence in the military, rather than a strong labor market, are likely the main causes of recruiting problems, a senior Marine Corps official suggested in a November article.
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Recruits from Bravo Company, Marine Corps Recruit Training Squadron, squat with a log at Marine Corps Recruit Depot San Diego, Nov. 28, 2022, U.S. Navy photo.
"The Marine Corps is struggling to recruit talented young Americans in a competitive economy and a society increasingly alienated from the military," Marine Corps Commandant General David Berger wrote in the Proceedings of the Naval Institute. "And we are not alone; all services have similar challenges. This concerns me as a member of the Commander and Joint Chiefs of Staff, as the Navy depends on the other services, and they depend on us, in a web of interdependence.
The Navy met its recruitment goals for fiscal year 2022, inducting 33,210 sailors. But Berger and other military leaders have expressed concern that the branches will not continue to meet those goals.
The Army, which recently met its fiscal year 2022 hiring goals, raised the age limit for new recruits last month as a way to increase the number of eligible recruits. The Marine Service also offers enlistment bonuses, a technique also used by the Navy and Air Force.
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America's low unemployment rate has been one of the most cited reasons for the tougher employment environment, but Berger says that while it may be a contributing factor, it deserves little of the blame.
"However, some of our biggest challenges are persistent, suggesting that the economy's strength may be worse than expected," Berger wrote. "For example, the Navy has struggled — in good economic times and in bad — to train and maintain an adequate number of pilots, even for newer, more sophisticated aircraft."
Commander, in his article, also evaluates narrowing the pool of eligible candidates. The latest numbers show that 77 percent of Americans between the ages of 17 and 21 are ineligible for military service, retired Adm. Robert Besal, who works with the Mission Readiness team, told USNI.
The three main reasons for ineligibility are failure to pass entrance exams, health problems and previous criminal activity, including drug abuse. One of the main health concerns is childhood obesity, Besal said, which accounts for 30 percent of the disenfranchised.
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Mission Readiness is trying to reform the eligibility pool in an effort to secure funding for education and nutrition programs, Besal said, but that requires congressional officials and other lawmakers to think long term.
Besal said that programs that address childhood obesity and failure to pass entrance exams should start with children under the age of three. But the payment won't be for another 15 years, when the child becomes eligible for services.
Gen. David H. Berger delivers remarks during a U.S. Marine Corps, Pacific Command change of command ceremony at Marine Corps Air Station Kaneohe Bay, Naval Base Hawaii, Sept. 7, 2022. Photo by US Army
But while Mission Readiness looks at what can be done for the future, there are currently few service options to solve the problem of ineligibility, Berger wrote.
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"Military leaders have few levers to increase the number of Americans eligible to serve, and the biggest and fastest lever — downgrading — is not what any military leader or most Americans want," he wrote. "Creating lasting change requires understanding and addressing the decline in consumer behavior."
The economy can help with employment challenges, but it's cyclical, Asch, a senior economist at RAND, told USNI.
Historically, when there are fewer jobs, it's difficult for the military to recruit, he said in a Nov. 2 interview. That may be the case with the military right now, but it's all speculation, he said.
"I don't think it's a situation," Asch said. "In my opinion, it's a matter of understanding the range of factors that can have an impact and then teasing out their relative importance and for which group, in which situation."
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Berger also noted that hiring challenges persist even when the unemployment rate is high, which is generally associated with better hiring, suggesting that the economy, while a factor, is not the only cause of hiring problems.
"There have been, I don't want to call all the scandals, but there have been some mistakes in the force used, whether individual or collective, and which should not have happened," said Besal. "And so I think that's something that's going to take some trouble within the service to correct. Because I think you're going to get very few people hearing from you when you make this request."
People have misconceptions about the military, which doesn't help the credibility problem, Asch said. For example, people don't always know the difference between the branches of the military or what it means to be an NCO.
Ignorance is the same between those who enlist and those who don't, but the difference is that those who choose the military have good morals associated with the military.
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A recruit hugs a family member as they are picked up for Recruit Training Command's (RTC) Adopt-A-Sailor Appreciation program. US Army photo
In Berger's piece, he points to a smaller group of people with family ties to the ministry.
"A growing percentage of those who serve in uniform have a close relative who has served (or is currently serving)," Berger wrote. "In other words, those who know the military are more likely to sign up."
However, this can hurt the military, as a recent survey by the Military Family Counseling Network found that military personnel are less likely to recommend a military career to a family member.
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Between 2019 and 2021, there was an 11 percent drop in family members who would recommend service, said Shannon Razsadin, president and executive director of the Military Family Counseling Network.
62.9 percent of military members surveyed by the Military Family Advisory Network would recommend military service to a family member, according to the 2021 annual survey. That's down from 74.5 percent in 2019.
The decline is linked to low pay, leadership challenges, frequent moves that strain families and military benefits that don't meet the challenges of service, Razsadin said.
But Berger noted that the pool of eligible soldiers could shrink among those with family ties if the military doesn't do more to reach out to those who don't know the military, and the family pool could shrink as well.
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"You definitely come from a small pool because when you had the draft, you know, everybody had service needs," Razsadin said. "And so these are people who are choosing to sacrifice, who are choosing to serve. And so, of course, it's going to be a different percentage than if you had the draft and mandatory service requirements." In the latest move to expand the Australian Defense Force (ADF), the Australian Government has selected Adecco Australia as its new Defense Procurement Partner.
Minister for Veterans Affairs and Defense Personnel Matt Keogh said that given the strategic environment we face today, the recruitment and retention of personnel has never been more important. "Our people are Australia's most important defense capability, and our national interests. It's exciting to work with a new procurement partner to ensure we work with the best people our nation has to offer," he said.
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